Republicans Efforts to Recruit Hispanic Candidates Finds Gold in California’s 11th District

By Bob Kent

LOS ANGELES,CA (OBSNews.com)– State and national GOP efforts to recruit Hispanic candidates may have hit gold in California’s 11th Congressional district. Conservative Republican Tony Amador, U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District recently filed for the congressional seat formerly held by Richard Pombo. If the early polling holds, Amador has the best chance to replace liberal Democrat Jerry McNerney in November.

After back-to-back beatings in the 2006 and 2008 elections, Republican strategists believe that GOP success depends on attracting conservative Hispanic voters. With their traditional Anglo-male base shrinking, Republicans talk with increasing urgency about wooing Hispanics, who are the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. population and who vote mostly Democratic.

In a February 22, 2010 interview with the Wall Street Journal, former Congressman Henry Bonilla of Texas said, "If you don't go out and bring more Hispanics to our party, the math isn't there to win, no matter what the other side does." Bonilla has argued the case in one-on-one meetings with Republican leaders in Congress. "If they're too blind to recognize that, it's their own selves doing them in."

The Hispanic population is expected to increase by nearly 200 percent by 2050, with non-Hispanic whites accounting for about half the U.S. population, down from 69.4 percent in 2000. From 1988 to 2008, the number of eligible Hispanic voters rose 21 percent -- from 16.1 million to 19.5 million.

According to a recent Sacramento Bee report, Republicans are most optimistic about their chances in California's Central Valley, where they've targeted four legislative seats.

Tim Clark, who's working with state Republicans, said immigration issues in California are taking a back seat to the economy, which has been hurting Latinos more than the general population. In the Central Valley, he said, Latinos and others are blaming Democratic leaders for siding with environmentalists over jobs in the state's long-running fights over water.

Clark said the Central Valley will be "ground zero" in this fall's election and that Republicans are busy registering voters.

"We're seeing a very positive reception from a number of different voter demographics, including the Latino population," he said.

Fewer Hispanics view the Democratic Party favorably than did a year ago, according to NBC-Wall Street Journal polls, when they had recently voted in record numbers for Barack Obama. When Jerry McNerney unseated Republican Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006, local leaders like Bill Baker insisted that the district’s red lean would allow them to easily reclaim the district in 2008. Yet, on November 4th, a mini-earthquake shook the district: Obama won the district by 9 percent, a remarkable turn-around of 18 percent compared to Kerry’s performance in 2004! McNerney dramatically benefited from the 2008 Obama wave; he defeated his Republican opponent Dean Andal 55 percent to 45 percent by capturing nearly 60 percent of the Latino vote. Andal ironically has recently endorsed an out-of-district candidate and Washington insider, David Harmer.

"I would be concerned if I was the White House, and if I was a member of Congress like Jerry McNerney I would be looking for another job," said Republican media consultant Stan Devereux.

A telephone survey of high-propensity registered voters within the 11th Congressional District was conducted after one year of Obama. The sample size of 500 yields a sampling error of less than +/- 3.5 percent.

The results showed that the 11th district is returning to its conservative position. What the GOP needs is a outsider candidate who can gain the support of conservative Latino voters to dump a far left incumbent, and it appears that U.S. Marshal Tony Amador is the candidate who can do the job.

Survey results demonstrate a strong trend toward retired U.S. Marshal Tony Amador when matched against the incumbent Jerry McNerney. The incumbent McNerney is upside down with 32 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable. A McNerney vote in favor of the health care bill drives the favorable-unfavorable ratio even higher.

On the ballot question, Amador led McNerney 47.9 percent to 39.5 percent. The support for Amador comes from two sources. First, Amador brings Republicans home. He captured 81 percent vote share among Republicans; slightly more than the 78 percent Democrat vote share enjoyed by McNerney. Among independent Latino voters, Amador captured 52 percent of the vote compared to McNerney’s 32 percent. If Amador can keep the independent differential near the twenty points found in this poll, Amador will win the election handily.

Republican candidates will gain ground with Latinos once they realize "that what the Democrats offer is just a bunch of empty promises," said Hector Barajas, a communications consultant for the state Senate Republican Caucus.

"I think the Democratic Party needs to wake up and realize that you can only fool the Latino community for so long," Barajas said. "There's a great sense of frustration, there's a great sense of anger, and there's a big letdown" that will drive more Latinos to the Republican Party, he said.